Gold forecasting 2013 .
We anticipate a decrease in 2013.
Forecasting Gold prices is supposed to be ready difficult.
We use for that an american predisential election model to do it.
On our graphs, we see that during the first year of a new Presidential’s term, there are usually a decrease of Gold prices. The explanation is that te world GPB is not very good during this precised year. At the begining of a new American Presidential’s term, there is often restrictiv politics trying to decrease the inflation.
There are exception for democrat’s new mandates*: in 1977 (Carter), 1993 (Clinton), and (Obama) 2009. New democrat’s presidential administration try to increase the GPB. This strategy increases by this way the Gold prices.
What can we forecasts for the future 2011, 2012, 2013 ?
It is difficult to say what will happen in 2011 and 2012. But we can suppose that probably Gold prices will decrease in 2013. The reason is that even if the president will be democrate, this will not be a democrat’s new mandates*situation
Christian Guy 2010
- * democrat’s new mandates means that the predecessor was a republican president.